The Thanksgiving Day forecast for Florida is looking dryer and dryer as a massive low-pressure system drenching the eastern U.S. heads toward the coast. Great news for Floridians staying put, bad news for anyone traveling to or from those regions before the holiday.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms from the system currently stretch from the Gulf Coast up through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, into the Midwest and the southern part of the Great Lakes, according to the National Weather Service.
“Thunderstorms are expected to be most intense early today across the lower Mississippi Valley with severe weather excepted before cooler and drier air arrives behind a dynamic cold front,” NWS forecasters Kwan-Yin Kong and Robert Oravec said.
Snow is expected in parts of northern Pennsylvania and upstate New York to central and northern New England through Tuesday night, AccuWeather forecasters said. “From 3 to 6 inches of snow is forecast to fall on the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, while from 6 to 12 inches is forecast to pile up from central New Hampshire to much of northwestern Maine,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
Some strong thunderstorms are expected to head into the South and interior Southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with severe weather and possible tornadoes across portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, the weather service said.
So far there have been 11,202 flight delays as of Tuesday afternoon, FlightAware’s live statistics said, with 629 total cancellations. In a recent ranking, three of the five worst airports to fly out of for the holiday are in Florida.
However, by Thanksgiving the system should have moved off the east coast, leaving dry, clear weather behind. Most of Florida will see none of this, the NWS predicts, with rain possible in the Panhandle, parts of North Florida and the southern tip of the peninsula but clear skies everywhere else in the state.
More than 55 million will be traveling for Thanksgiving weekend
National auto club AAA predicts that more than 3 million Floridians will travel 50 miles or more during the Thanksgiving holiday travel period, out of more than 55.3 million Americans nationwide. That’s the third-highest nationwide travel numbers over Thanksgiving since 2000 and nearly 1.3 million more than last year.
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Will it rain on Thanksgiving in Florida?
Depending on where you are, maybe, at least that evening while you’re digesting your holiday.
In the Panhandle, as of Tuesday, there’s a 90% chance of rain Tuesday and a 60% chance later inn the evening, a 20% chance early Wednesday, and then a 30% chance of showers on Thursday night, according to the NWS.
Tallahassee might see some rain Thursday night (20% chance) but it can expect a wet couple of days first. There’s a 40% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday, the NWS said, with a 90% chance of showers in the evening. Wednesday is expected to start off rainy and taper off throughout the day. By Tuesday night into Wednesday the rains may hit the Jacksonville area, but Thursday the day is forecast to be partly sunny with a 20% chance of showers in the evening.
Central Florida is looking at a 40% chance of showers Wednesday but a partly sunny Thanksgiving, forecasters said.
Southwest Florida will see partly sunny days and partly cloudy nights all week but there’s no rain expected until possibly Friday. Southeast Florida might see some rain Wednesday night (30% chance) but you’ll have a partly sunny Thanksgiving to look forward to, the NWS said.
South Florida is the only area in the state where rain is forecast during the day on Thanksgiving (20%).
There’s a low chance of rain for areas in the Florida Keys from Thursday into the weekend, however.
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Will it be hot or cold on Thanksgiving in Florida?
Not quite wintry weather yet, but the cold front accompanying the low-pressure area sweeping across the country will bring temperatures in the Panhandle down to the high 40s overnight Wednesday night and into the low 60s on Thanksgiving as of the Tuesday forecasts from the NWS.
North Florida can expect temps in the low-to-mid 60s Thursday and Friday, with overnight lows in the 40s.
Central Florida will be running a bit warmer, with temperatures in the high 70s until a Wednesday overnight drop to the high 60s, the NWS said.
The cold front still might affect Southwest Florida, but only enough to bring the Thursday temps down to just 76 degrees with overnight lows before and after in the low 60s.
Southeast Florida will dip down into the low 70s for Thanksgiving, with overnight lows in the low 60s.
And South Florida should see a low-80s Thanksgiving, with overnights in the low 70s.
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What does the Farmers’ Almanac predict for Thanksgiving weather in Florida?
According to the Almanac, it’ll be time to “cuddle up with some hot apple cider!” Conditions for the Southeast, including Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida, are expected to be fair but cold. “Cold” being relative for the Sunshine State, of course.
The Almanac has predicted a return to cooler weather in its 2023-2024 winter forecast, with a greater chance of rain for the southeast.
“The Southeast and Florida will see a wetter-than-normal winter, with average winter temperatures overall, but a few frosts may send many shivers to snowbirds trying to avoid the cold and snow back home,” the Farmers’ Almanac predicted.
The Old Farmers’ Almanac, a competitor, predicts warm weather and scattered showers for Nov. 23-30.
What did the Farmers’ Almanac predict for Thanksgiving weather around the country?
If you’ll be traveling for the holidays, here’s what you can expect to run into, according to the Farmers’ Almanac:
- Northeast & New England: New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C. should see “mostly fair but cold weather.”
- Great Lakes, Ohio Valley & Midwest: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, and Wisconsin may see rain and possibly snow beforehand but see a “mostly fair but cold Thanksgiving.”
- North Central: Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana may get hit with light snow in the Rockies before the holiday, followed by a heavy snowfall in the Nebraska and Dakotas area.
- South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico should see a “clear and cold” holiday, with some stormy weather from the west.
- Northwest: Washington, Oregon, and Idaho may see “rain and wet snow.”
- Southwest: California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona may be getting a “rainy Thanksgiving,” the Almanac said.
USA TODAY reporter Doyle Rice contributed to this article.
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