#Taiwan: Why the US & China are on collision course for war | DW News ctm.news

#Taiwan: Why the US & China are on collision course for war | DW News ctm.news

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“The Chinese seem to be preparing for a war against Taiwan” says Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu. This puts the US and China on collision course for war – with potentially dramatic stakes for the world.

China’s President Xi Jinping has vowed that Beijing will “reunify” with the island – if necessary, by force. A large majority of people in Taiwan say they don’t want reunification. The United States is increasingly clear that it would intervene to defend Taiwan from any attack.

How did it come to this – and what happens next?

In this special analysis, DW’s Richard Walker uncovers the roots of the dispute over Taiwan, in part 1 tracing how the diplomatic breakthroughs of the 1970s between the US and China left unfinished business that has festered ever since.

Part 2 tracks why these tensions have now burst into the open, with accusations of betrayal in all directions. And part 3 projects trends in China, the United States and Taiwan forward into the future to assess where the dispute is heading – and if there is any way of avoiding war.

Leading US authority on Taiwan, Shelley Rigger warns: “I think the danger is greater today than it has ever been before. The US and China are in this spiral of threat and counter threat, and Taiwan is caught in the middle.” Retired People’s Liberation Army Senior Colonel Zhou Bo explains the scenarios under which China would use force. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd sets out ideas for a diplomatic solution that he admits both China and Taiwan would “hate.” CNAS think tank Chair Michèle Flournoy sets out her bottom line: “The key thing is for Beijing to recognize that if you go to war to seize Taiwan, you lose.”

The film includes further interviews with Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu; retired Senior Colonel in China’s People’s Liberation Army, Zhou Bo; former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd; Center for a New American Security Chair Michèle Flournoy; Enoch Wu of the Forward Alliance NGO; Meia Nouwens of the International Institute for Strategic Studies; German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock; German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck; and Till Steffen of the Berlin-Taipei Parliamentary Friendship Group.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction
04:47 Part 1: Origins
05:58 The “grand chessboard movement”
07:55 The secret mission
09:00 The “One China principle”
10:10 The diplomatic “fig leaf”
11:40 Taiwan isolated
12:40 “Hell, no!”
13:30 Strategic ambiguity
15:00 Diplomatic gymnastics
16:05 “Permeated with distrust”
16:45 Part 2: The Undoing
17:20 Chinese military pressure
18:00 Crossing the “median line”
18:30 Pelosi lands in Taipei
19:30 “The United States provoked China
20:30 Western lawmakers stream to Taiwan
21:20 Parallels to Ukraine
22:00 Preparing Taiwanese citizens for war
23:12 Taiwan’s growing sense of self
24:30 The US keeps the weapons flowing
25:25 PLA modernization
26:00 “We will become as strong as the US”
27:40 The US would defend Taiwan
28:43 “Hollowing out One China”
Part 3: Collision Course?
31:27 “We should not divide the world”
32:40 “There’s no hotline”
33:30 Compromises?
34:20 China’s preparations for war in the 2030s
35:30 “National rejuvenation”
37:37 China’s 3 invasion scenarios
39:30 One thing stands in China’s way
41:00 US focus on semiconductors
42:30 Timelines shrinking fast
43:30 Warnings from Europe
44:26 “Deterrence is the name of the game”
45:03 “America’s intention is to contain China”
46:20 “Taiwan is caught in the middle”
47:20 The front line of the front line
48:30 Asymmetric warfare
49:30 Training for resilience
50:45 Opposition calls for dialogue
51:40 Any chance of a breakthrough?
53:40 How long can the tension hold?
55:10 Taiwan’s greatest hope?

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#Taiwan #China #xijinping

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45 thoughts on “#Taiwan: Why the US & China are on collision course for war | DW News ctm.news

  1. It's not nearly as complicated as it sounds. The US made the deal with China in 72 because of our concern that China and Russia would team up together as Communist to start WW3 with the west ; so the US and the west told China whatever they wanted to hear to prevent that from occurring, Taiwan was just a pawn because we knew China was unable to take Taiwan by force at the time. We kicked the can down the road basically but no WW3. Leading up to the Ukraine War China openly defied this agreement by telling the World that Russia and China were Best Buds and they were going to change the World order created by the west. So the US responded by send Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan as a reminder of our agreement. As such regardless of all the talk China and Russia's relationship has cooled since because is more concerned with the Taiwan issue then with their ties with Russian Taiwan is of strategic important to the US because they are part of the first island chain countries that contain China within the Asia pacific, which would be the only path that China has to attack the US's west coast; and so yes the US would go to War for Taiwan because the US would rather fight China's in their back yard then in our own. The US has already started the process to isolate and deflate China economically so they will never become a threat to the west in the future. The US would never step foot on China soil if we did go to War. We would blockade all Oil and Food going into China, sit back for a year and wait for them to surrender.

  2. This is biggest battleground after pacific war
    Enormous destruction and avenge to fulfil of all relative strength of all resources
    Both are badly hampered like third battle of panipat
    No one can taste joy of victory
    Both are vandised with who win last soldiers remain battlefield
    This horror imagine dream which became true in future
    Flash are out and ignition start

  3. The West in general are ignorant of the world. We only want to know the history when it favors us. We ignore the history of Chinese and Taiwanese(Republic of China) if it's not to our liking.

    Chiang Kai-shek is Chinese and he lost the war on the mainland and then he and his army retreated to the Island and vowed to take back the mainland. Today, there are actually biological siblings on the mainland and Taiwan. Peace is the only way out!

  4. It would be very unwise for China to go to war. Not only is India an arch enemy. China awakened Japan also and Japan is going to invest 320 billion on top of its other military expenditure. Taiwan is raising its military, albeit small compared to China, it still is not insignificant. Then the big fish USA in battle Im sure it will be able to beat China 1 on 1. USA has so much military weaponry that are all tested and just far ahead in various ways, China is completely untested, and any weapon that will not be effective or ready, will be too late for China to replace with anything against USA in such a war. Then you have South Korea, Vietnam, Phillipines, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand that all 100% would join the fight too. Indonesia perhaps also as also Indonesia isn't happy with Chinese meddeling into it's seaspace either.

    Then China is (as Japan) very dependent on gas and oil. However. It's all the nations around that control the flow of commerce. Its going to be disastrous for China if all these nations fight together. If China isn't blown away by the combined force of these nations, then it's depletion of resources will. And that is aside the fact that USA above all will make quick work of China's infrastructure and production facilities. And Australia and Japan area also creating these capabilities too. Then I haven't talked about the inclusion of France and UK at the very least into this conflict.

    Oh. And China has also been meddeling with South america, or even being as bastardous in fishing the seas empty in front of these nations. That is aside the fact that China has 17 border issues with countries all around.

    This is aside the fact that the NATO, Japan and other nations have awoken. And let noone forget that these nations are economic powerhouses that can quickly ramp up in military power if they want. If China wants to make a case, then the best moment for the Chinese is now. In a few years, Japan and Germany also are much stronger militarily than they are now and many of the NATO nations spending 1.1% last year will have to spend 2-2.2% from here on which will add a budget of an extra 250 billion dollar, which is literally the total budget of China.
    In the meantime china has been following a path economically and politically that is the opposite of what made them big in the first place. It's burning it's bridges by it's actions or political direction and the balloon may be filled now, but the air can also go out again. And when that happens, better beliefe that the world will not allow China to follow this path again

  5. please check the recent vote results in Taiwan it doesn’t seem that the people of Taiwan follow this narrative… they are more concerned with other issues than China and hence their president recent resignation.

    “Voters in Taiwan overwhelmingly chose the opposition Nationalist party in several major races across the self-ruled island in an election in which lingering concerns about threats from China took a backseat to more local issues” -NPR

  6. 1st define China, is Manchurian, Mongolian, Tibetan, etc. are Chinese, Chineses are Han dynasty. Taiwan was never belong to China and so is Vietnam. VN communist govt is a puppet for CCP since 1954, but soon VN people who is not loyal to the VN govt will wipe out their own communist govt. The region "Quang Dong" belong to VN its like Crimea to Ukraine.

  7. Well, he doesn’t want to leave he wanna stay in charge of China for the rest of his life and I bet you got a pass down to a son does it he sound like someone someone from North Korea? He sounds just like him if anyone wants to get him the end of dead.

  8. If Xi Jinping attempts to fire upon Taiwan. It will be suicide. It will be instant destruction of major Chinese cities including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Wuhan, Tianjin… every big Chinese city will be destroyed by nuclear missiles raining upon them

  9. What China needs to understand is that everyone has to respect the principle of self-determination. Even if Taiwan is part of China, through a fair and commonly agreed process they should be able to secede. Usually, through a clearly defined process such as a majority, or majoritarian vote. This is difficult. It is not easy to accept, as everyone wants their country to be united. II know this, being Canadian, but what is the alternative? What Russia and China fail to grasp is that you cannot compel or force political membership. You can listen carefully, and attempt to accommodate concerns and offer incentives for unity. China’s actions in Hong Kong are what pushed this conflict closer, it demonstrated the reality of subjugation. Any historical awareness reveals that direct imperial domination cannot be sustained.

  10. Us made a wrong choice and it will have consequences. They should have never sided with China in the first place in 1972. Now it became worlds 2 biggest economy and will be a serious threat to us themselves, not just to Taiwan or nearby countries. Good job nickson. Your great great sons will have to pay the price for what you had done.

  11. You do realise that Taiwan is actually parts of China getting tricked by USA only 50 years ago, Taiwan is China. USA got nothing to do with this, they just want to go to war.
    DO not forget about democractic right. 1 Billion people want to unite, 23 Millions do not. Not a Majority but 98 % of the Chinese want to unite.

  12. Taiwan is a done deal. China will not allow a hostile island under its nose. This is how the world works. If you don't like it, find another planet. Follow Musk to the Mars maybe.

  13. The problem with China's overconfidence is that they have not fought a true modern war. They have very little combat experience, and nor do many of their trainers. They are producing all this technology to match the US, but they have not used it on actual enemies; thus robbing them of the ability to improve and eliminate their military weaknesses.

  14. If the US gave up support for Taiwan, the result would be the same as the world accepting Russia taking Crimea. China would assume it had carte blanche in the Pacific Ocean and would not stop until we drew a new line.
    Meanwhile, Will the country of China survive covid or will it crumble from within?

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