Blog

WEBFI-TECH-Tesla is going through a MASSIVE CHANGE – Q4 Financials + OPTIMUS (Ep. 512)



I discuss TSLA’s Q4 financials and the potential they have for FSD, Robotaxi and Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot.

Social
🐦 Twitter https://mobile.twitter.com/heydave7
🎧 Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dave-lee-on-investing/id1493031991
🎙️Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2iin015s0k21Bt4ldep9XT?si=uBV4Ft8hQEu_GE4YSIDDGg
📸 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/heydave7
Dave Lee on Parenting, https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWD9b1BZqi2G2u30sGYIFrA

NOTE: Please don’t fall for scammers who might impersonate me or others in the comment section. I do NOT give out my number or ask people to contact me.

💁🏻‍♂️ Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA, LMND, SQ, and other stocks at time of original video publish date. When you buy through links in this video description, author may earn an affiliate commission.

Open an brokerage account at Interactive Brokers:
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=daveleey&url=%2Fen%2Findex.php%3Ff%3D1338

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

#TSLA #Tesla #Stocks

source

44 Comments

  • Clara Smith on January 27, 2022

    The world believes that to displace hydrocarbon fueled vehicles, we need a long range $25,000 electric car. Everyone believed that this was Tesla's goal. Leave it to Elon to see a different future, a better future, where transportation becomes more cost effective and safer than anyone could practically imagine.

  • terawatt on January 27, 2022

    Can't imagine that Wall Street won't puke on TSLA due to this awful regurgitation by Musk last night.

  • D K on January 27, 2022

    TSLA-NOT working on the 25K car is a HUGE mistake. opens the door for other mfg's. FSD is  profitable  – like selling the printer at cost and making $$$ on the ink. Elon is missing a HUGE opportunity.

  • Adam Green on January 27, 2022

    You're right about the risks: Tesla still has trouble building cars without severe defects and still has trouble working with regulators.
    Your estimates for 21Q4 proved accurate and your minor adjustments for '22 and '23 I think correctly show nominal growth for a carmaker – not the advent of some AI or robot innovation. So we can take the "Optimus" and other imaginary products as occurring after '23.

    Aside from the verbiage, this "vision" of a human scale robot has been around since the 1800's when Mary Shelley imagined animating artificial life, to mid last century as a mechanical man, and has been envisioned as "real soon now" ever since. So far, AI plays a mean game of Go, but little else in the material world.

    I think a simplified view of the world where robots walk amongst us – starting with the factory floor and the assembly line – makes sense only at first blush. Examined in more practical detail, the complications of rolling robots (vehicle autonomy) illustrate the far greater complication of ambulatory robots anywhere beyond the military, where collateral damage is part of the business model and government-sanctioned.

    Ironically, if Musk's comments about robots inspire speculators, they should be buying Hyundai (Boston Dynamics) which has a real parkour robot with versions suited to industrial, commercial and military roles. If and when Tesla has a similarly capable human scale 'bot, it won't mesh with the Tesla brand, so I'd expect Musk to take that genius and spin it off to another "not for you!" entity like SpaceX and Starlink. Investing in Tesla because of vague expectations for robots is futile – revenue from those inventions will not channel through Tesla.

    Musk is selling a dream which is still only a dream; nothing said or done in 2021 demonstrates realization of any software beyond the scope of building aging battery technology and building larger volumes of cars (still hampered in Europe, and Texas, so far, only China has been able to instantiate the gigafactory.)

    As for this earnings call, Tesla continues to be a battery company that builds factories to build non-robotic hardware (cars and solar) to sell batteries, which it is now reselling from CATL and others. Tesla is not a software company. The number of people who've bought FSD, like myself, continue to be empty handed. Meanwhile, there are a million people waiting for the Cybertruck – if the earnings call had said "here is the final pre-production Cybertruck and we'll build a million of 'em starting yesterday" there would be cause for optimism, not continued "real soon now" hope for Optimus.

  • Bernardo B on January 27, 2022

    The ridiculous way that TSLA behaves (down after massive profit) in a weird way helps keeps some of the daytraders away…

  • neo wee min on January 27, 2022

    should tesla focus on energy storag and get it off…ev and yes with FSD…..but shifting to robots – Optimus…isn't it going off course a bit for tesla….agreed u can't produce new one when plate is full…then perhaps new production line should be planned….not shifting to something else…..it will derail the mission…

  • Mike Petersen on January 27, 2022

    Do you think a family will buy more cars or have less? My thought is a family wouldn't need multiple cars if one could take dad to work, mom to work, kids to school and then pick everyone up. More miles but multiple cars would not be needed.

  • Mark Juhasz on January 27, 2022

    Thx for the show+
    Why is It falling?

  • PK on January 27, 2022

    Optimus will be able to drive any car. So you can rent Optimus to turn any car into autopilot. Of course integrated one is always better. Analyst are so confused, they can’t model Labour.

  • Michael B on January 27, 2022

    I wish that Tesla would just focus on doing EV cars really well. It would probably be a better business if there was more focus on customer service and ev quality. It's great that they are making money, but I don't think I would ever buy one due to the poor service arrangement. I know they are innovative, but I doubt they are the best EV company in five years.

  • Deep Relevance on January 27, 2022

    I need like 5seconds outro misic

  • Rudy Romo on January 27, 2022

    New paradigm…. With virtually no limits. We're fortunatre to be living in very interesting times!

  • Tom Richardson on January 27, 2022

    Do you think he is pushing hard on Optimus because he needs it to go to Mars before humans go? Mars appears to be his top priority.

  • Nicolas on January 27, 2022

    Optimus is 10years away at minimum. The complexity is on another level. Elon timeline 😂

  • Big H797 on January 27, 2022

    The gap between long term investors and short term players was highlighted by this latest call. Those that just focus on the next quarter or two we’re not impressed by yesterday’s news. They focused on chip issues, Cybertruck delays etc, others understood the ramifications of general A.I. for Tesla. Long term players will take advantage of a short term pull back in the stock price and accumulate more stock. All is good if you can grasp Elon’s vision, those who don’t see it will miss out on the opportunity of a lifetime. Granted FSD/robo taxi may be reached in 1-2 years, Optimus subprime in 5-10 years. We are talking multiple S curves of growth for Tesla. Currently, we are in the first of three curves. If the labor market can be disrupted with Optimus, the stock price might equal the price of LR Model Y in years to come. Countries where is low population growth now have a way to address labor shortages.

  • Tyler on January 27, 2022

    Tesla is going to demolish production and delivers for 2022. Elon stated the chip shortage was like the toilet paper shortage. Tesla like every other company double and triple ordered, that’s why they are going to expand current vehicle production. Every automaker is going to have more chips than they need, but Tesla will sell every vehicle it makes. I think they’ll hit 2 million EOY

  • Ge Go on January 27, 2022

    Said it before, say it again, model 2 (or whatever it will be called) will not be for the public, it will be Teslas robotaxi fleet car. Do the math, it will bring a lot more revenue than selling cars to consumers.

  • Martin Woods on January 27, 2022

    Model Y first deliveries coming to UK on February 19th from China (not Berlin) as the cars are RHD.

  • ASAP Rocky on January 27, 2022

    Will existing Tesla investors benefit from Optimus?

  • Gibson on January 27, 2022

    Whats the difference between FSD and AP? Does AP not already have the AI and software capable of FSD?

  • Nirav Patel on January 27, 2022

    Can tesla sell their software to other EV maker so they do not have to reinvent the wheel? FSD hardware and Software.

  • Mark Booth on January 27, 2022

    Come on Tesla, burn burn burn today 🔥 I have plenty of funds arriving to top up my stock tomorrow

  • Christopher Beyer on January 27, 2022

    Not just Tesla but the whole EV space is going through a massive change. Tesla is no longer king of the mountain. Sure, Tesla has scaled much faster than its competitors but that isn't always a good thing when the competition will soon be exporting better tech at a fraction of the cost.

  • Christopher Beyer on January 27, 2022

    Why are all Tesla fans so blind to the obvious competition by BYD, Geely, Xpeng, Nio, SAC … and the list grows larger day by day.
    I guarantee that no one on this board has been keeping up with the growing competition, I mean how can they when Western media doesn't report on the news coming out of China, South Korea, even Vietnam. Reminiscent of the Japanese auto invasion in the 70's.

  • Pravina Fi on January 27, 2022

    Exciting times ☺️

  • thebudmang on January 27, 2022

    I really would hope Elon would dance with the one that brought him to the party. Stick to cars. Screw the robot for now. Let's not get distracted by the next shiny thing right now. There is a ton to do in automotive and until Tesla has less the $30k car on the road the Chinese will take over the market. Sorry to disappoint you Dave, but now is not the time to take our eye off the ball.

  • The Fish on January 27, 2022

    Wouldn’t it be nice if the stock would ever go UP again? This cratering is getting old while everyone keeps touting the hell out of it.

  • Eugene Putin on January 27, 2022

    You gotta be blind to think robotaxi is happening anytime soon. Maybe another 5 years before people start risking it and sleeping in their cars, with the car making you agree to a disclaimer. Another 5 years for regulators to even start looking at it as a fully autonomous vehicle. By then itll have HW10 computer and a whole nother architecture. In no way shape or form is tesla going to retrofit current cars. The optimus robot was there purely to pump stock. Thats another 20 years away if not more.

  • Chris Ose on January 27, 2022

    Stock is down to $829 and I’m still holding strong!

  • Stuart Price on January 27, 2022

    I don't scare easily but Optimus scares me a lot. Even though these things seem like a great idea from a financial perspective, it would be pretty darn stupid for the human race to replace itself with robots. Personally, I enjoy work,
    and millions of others do too. It would be hugely detrimental to all of us humans to remove it. Like nuclear weapons, it seemed like a good idea at the time to invent them, but once you've invented something you can't un-invent it ! Optimus, if successful, could easily wipe us all out in unforeseen ways.

  • Charles Bower on January 27, 2022

    Maybe change the name from Tesla to Optima, who needs cars, GM can do that..

  • The Electric Man on January 27, 2022

    wow

  • Andrew Llorente on January 27, 2022

    There's a shift going on in my mind with my perception of Tesla. Heretofore, it has been Tesla's mission = Good. This is because they're accelerating the transition to renewable energy, reducing CO2 emissions, reducing pollution, saving lives. But with the advent of Optimus, I'm beginning to wonder if Tesla's mission = Bad if their end game is to eliminate human labor and give labor to machines/AI. People need to work, to labor. It's essential for survival, and in the highest sense, it brings meaning to people's lives. By taking this away…it could be devastating. I'm sure it's not black and white, there'll be a lot of gray. but we need to understand the ethics of this. Get clarity on what the mission is changing to.

  • John Peters on January 27, 2022

    Dave, That is the most succinct report i have ever seen. I am referring it to my friends

  • Terry Forth on January 27, 2022

    Great summary and overview of what was presented in the call, however if he was truly trying to shift the strategy from new models to autonomous making the current vehicles more economically attractive, he should’ve included some quantitative improvement data for FSD over the past year, in order to convince investors that this approach was becoming more viable.

  • David Ahn on January 28, 2022

    I agree this is revolutionary, but 90% of people will immediately reject the notion… until it happens. So TSLA is a huge buying opportunity for anyone who has cash left to buy in before everyone else sees FSD and real-world AI and autonomous general purpose bots *are real*. As it happens, I'm strapped, as my options play lost big time thanks to Elon's message going WAY over everyone's head.

  • Mike Oskam on January 28, 2022

    Finally somebody mentioned the link with Transformers.

  • John McEwan on January 28, 2022

    Nicely stated and 100% correct!

  • Geo fromNJ on January 28, 2022

    I'll be delighted to be wrong on this, but I think fully autonomous driving is five years away at least. Consider all the obstacles that a driver could encounter on a given journey of ten miles, all the decisions that would have to be made. It will take a very long time to develop software to manage this.

  • Alex Rodriguez on January 28, 2022

    The feeling I got was that Elon might not even want to sell a $25k car. It feels like he thinks there is no point. A Model 3 with FSD has increased it's utility so much that it's better than a $25k car. He might think that it's wasteful to proceed with that cheaper car. Anyone else get that feeling.

  • DavidMillsSeven on January 29, 2022

    Analysts are prisoned in their own models. Caught in their illusory paradigm. Furthermore these models are dead wrong solely looking at Tesla’s car business without FSD.

  • Tablon Guitar on January 29, 2022

    FSD is vaporware, Robotaxis are vaporware, and Tesla is at least 10 years being the competition in robotics and AI.

  • Jeff D on February 2, 2022

    I just realized today that Optimus could make Tesla as big as the G20 economies and maybe even the smaller G7 nations! Holy ring crap! Tesla shareholders will collectively be as powerful as Germany or the UK!! Think about that and see what happens to your brain! Optimus only has to be capable of the most basic yet economically valuable tasks to begin to go into production. It does not really need to be able to walk. It just needs to be able to operate one or two ( 3 or 4 or 5 or…..) arms and hands with a means to stabilize the arms. Locomotion could be any of a number of options from fixed in place to normal wheels. It only needs legs if legs are necessary for a task. It may even be just a Torso with a quad copter for a head to move around when needed!

  • Mitch Conner on February 21, 2022

    Musk said the robot taxi with cost $5 and spit wads of cash out of the exhaust pipe. And it's electric so the pipe was installed just so it can spit out cash.

WhatsApp us
Live Chat

Office hours operation Mon-Sun 8:00 am ET – 4:00 pm ET

To start your Premium WP or Cpanel service, use our domain search engine, if the domain you want is available, contact us by Whats app to activate your project.

The easiest, fastest, and most secure way to communicate with us.
loading
Please enter your domain.
Please verify that you are not a robot.

Terms Privacy

 

 

error: WEBFINET SECURITY IS ON