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WEBFI-TECH-Tesla’s MASSIVE opportunity from now UNTIL 2030 w/ Pierre Ferragu (Ep. 491)



I’m joined by New Street Research analyst, Pierre Ferragu, to discuss TSLA valuation, 2022 expectations, gross margins, Robotaxi, autonomous driving, competition, risks and more.

Pierre Ferragu on Twitter: @p_ferragu

Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
00:48 – View of volatility in TSLA and the markets
03:26 – How investors underestimate or misunderstand Tesla – $1 Trillion Startup with 1% market share
06:02 – How much can gross margin increase in future?
12:25 – Hyper bull case of FSD impact on gross margins
19:35 – Robotaxi deployment… delusional?
24:30 – Human labor in ridesharing vs autonomous ride hailing, Uber and Lyft vs Tesla
34:35 – Autonomous driving competition – Mobileye, Aurora, Waymo, Cruise
36:03 – When can Tesla become the most valuable company in the world?
37:27 – Thoughts on AAPL
40:17 – Tesla 2022 delivery expectations
43:55 – Conclusion

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36 Comments

  • leolaw624 on January 11, 2022

    very great discussion, both of you make a good point of views

  • Stuart Matthews on January 11, 2022

    Gotta say, I don't find Pierre's anti robotaxi business argument to be compelling. Great follow-up questions, Dave, to expose the weakness of the argument.

  • Paul Wolf on January 11, 2022

    nice interview! thanks!

  • Piers on January 11, 2022

    Pierre really does raise some great points, especially one set of profit on the car sale and a potential 3x that profit on the life of the car with Autopilot payable monthly. Just the way Apple has gone. Good news moving forward👍

  • M S on January 11, 2022

    Robotaxy is not only superior to Uber because it will be much safer, but also because Uber is facing headwinds more and more because of bad working conditions of Uber drivers. Just as one example, it was only a couple of days ago, when the Swiss government decided to see Uber as employer instead of a platform free of responsability, which means Uber will have to pay social insurance for its drivers, meaning that Uber will become much less competitive way before Robotaxy will hit the ground. So Robotaxy will be the way to go once FSD will be accepted by the regulators.

  • neo wee min on January 11, 2022

    autopilot price an be mitigated by insurance drop with fsd…so tesla can win by selling insurance and fsd…then when supercharger and solarcity comes in the savings will create the sustainable ev ecosystem that Elon envisioned…coupled wit the starlink network that connect the car to the sky internet at all time.

  • Rand Alexander on January 11, 2022

    I think Pierre's notion of Tesla having to basically advertise to gain potential marketshare from Uber and Lyft in a robotaxi deployment as compared to Google fiber vs. AT&T goes completely against all Tesla has ever done to gain market share– and that is reliance on advertising. Tesla doesn't advertise. And furthermore any Robotaxi deployment might possibly start via owners. Those owners who also spread the gospel about their Teslas to own would also spread the word about their Teslas now operating as RoboTaxis. That and the press about it would, in my supposition, largely propel Robotaxi deployment/rollout. Just my 2 cents based on an otherwise great Pierre interview…

  • Fred Bloggs on January 11, 2022

    Fantastic interview Dave. One of your best!

  • SRV on January 11, 2022

    Dave, It would be so very interesting to have an discussion about robotaxi with Pierre and Tasha Keeney. They are on the opposite side but I fully understand both opinions

  • Matz G on January 11, 2022

    Pierre lost me on the robotaxi conversation. Maybe lost in translation. I don't see where the big problem is IF they achieve level 5. They build their own cars, they own the software, they have the charging infrastructure, they have the brand/network effects, they have the fanboys, they will not need marketing, the technology is so impressive it will self-advertise. It's not like you need to invest huge amounts for infrastructure. The highways and city streets are already here, which would be analogous to what google fiber would have had to build. You have some opportunity cost for every car you don't sell to a paying customer, sure.

  • DFKnightmare on January 11, 2022

    No driver also means no one to tip so that lowers the cost a ton itself.

  • Pies Thighsnfries on January 11, 2022

    Uber will use FSD Teslas if they ever work, and Tesla will not do well/get in the business. It’s too much extra complication to Tesla’s business.

  • Callum Barnes on January 11, 2022

    Great stuff as always. Thanks Dave

  • Pradeep Patel on January 11, 2022

    Pure 💎

  • Laurence Seberini on January 11, 2022

    I don't agree with Pierre's main point on Robotaxi not working due to the economics of customer acquisition. Elon personally can Tweet to 69M people. Tesla is a giant of a word of mouth brand. And if people can ride alone in a Tesla with FSD and no-one else is offering that and its cheaper then it will spread like wildfire – it will be viral customer acquisition because everyone will be talking about how cool this is and everyone will want to try it and if the experience is cheaper and better customers will convert and stick.

  • chris heath on January 11, 2022

    Pierre is a clever dude. He's completely wrong on FSD. Tesla have multiple ways to enter the market, and a consumer base that want to make money….conclusion – this will be a massively lucrative market, for Tesla owners, Tesla, and shareholders…(I mean, of course, totally finished FSD)

  • Vincent Hernandez on January 11, 2022

    How'd I get here, woah.
    I can't wait ,
    Plzzz Draaggoonnn

  • Ed Hill on January 11, 2022

    I think Pierre Ferragu is much closer to understanding the challenges and discussing the future of FSD then other analysts. I got the sense he surprised Dave Lee with some of his insightful observations.

  • ElysiumChaser77 on January 11, 2022

    As much as he tries to say that he understands Tesla, Pierre clearly doesn’t. To say that Tesla’s goal would be to make money right away when investing in a robotaxi network is fucking insane. Tesla has clearly shown they are willing to invest billions of dollars in growth over instant money making like other companies. Tesla is going to be the highest profit producing company in the world! Of course they will have the money to invest FAR MORE than Uber and lyft which loose money hand over fist. No fucking way. This is a ridiculous take. Just look at how much money the two models will be able to provide to support the network with infrastructure.

  • M Beliv on January 11, 2022

    HAHAHA Tesla not the first one to solve the fsd hahaha So funny this Peter Farragu Can t stop laughing

  • Matt Schwab on January 12, 2022

    Killing in so far in 2022 Dave! You the man.

  • nzguy on January 12, 2022

    Tesla are also trying to make the world better. Putting Uber/Lyft out of business just to replace them doesn't achieve anything, better to work with them and achieve the result together.

  • kofManKan on January 12, 2022

    With regard to FSD, if (or indeed when IMO) this is ready for general use, it will be available for installation in non-Teslas. Also, Tesla will have too much money to spend soon and will be able to make "bad" business decisions, if it's in line with their goals. The climate emergency will accelerate over the next years unfortunately and humanity in general will undergo a major perspective shift – I think that the start of this was notable in 2021. Love your channel Dave, keep up the great work!

  • Brave on January 12, 2022

    Pierre changed his mind on if Tesla would become the biggest company in the world. When Rob Mauer asked him the same question a few months ago, he was negative and thought that Alibaba and Amazon would be instead.

  • K. Hank Lim on January 12, 2022

    Wow… you are on a roll for 2022… one great interview after another … from different point of view ..GREAT JOB…. Thank You ,,

  • Soonie K Choi on January 12, 2022

    That was an excellent question….. “Do you think Tesla can become the most valuable company in the world at some point?”

  • Simon Courchesne on January 12, 2022

    Loved when you confronted him on robotaxies Dave! I think you’re right actually

  • MSIContent on January 12, 2022

    I think another important point that was missed, is the opportunity for Tesla owners to just flick a switch on their app, and now their car is available as a RoboTaxi! No need to “buy” a fleet of dedicated cars to prove out the technology, and potentially there could be 1000’s available in a large city. i.e. Zero cost to start apart from maybe some marketing.

  • Alex K on January 12, 2022

    Isn’t that the idiot who put a $90 price target on Apple last year? Yup it is

  • Sritha Amarnath on January 12, 2022

    in an interview with Rob Maurer, pierre took a looong pause before answering "the most valuable company question" and answered it could be amazon as the most valuable company. glad that has now changed to tesla. bullishhhh!

  • Hershey Kiss on January 12, 2022

    pierre trying to do gettr? based! except gettr is a little sketchy

  • Gavriel manak on January 13, 2022

    Completely disagree with his robo-taxi analysis. Like completely lol. What is he saying right now lol?

  • olyguy2000 on January 13, 2022

    Good interview, but Dave you really need to introduce your guests better. Viewers deserve to understand the analyst or guest's experience and bias before we dedicate 45 minutes or an hour or more to your program. These interviews are long enough that you could easily take 1-2 minutes to tell us about them first. I do appreciate the time stamps.

  • Mikey on January 13, 2022

    Incredible content Dave

  • Johan Nel on January 14, 2022

    Great interview. Pierre is so thorough and professional. Always love to hear his take.

  • Chris B on January 14, 2022

    Dave is becoming MeetKevin. Printing content! 😆

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