One week after nailing eight of the top 10 defenses, we hit on six of ten this week with a few others (Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Kansas City) finishing just one point out of the top 10. The recent shift in weekly formula to double the emphasis on opponent and also factor in the last four weeks performance of each defense to highlight recent performance seems to have helped the overall weekly accuracy.
Unfortunately, I have a feeling that Week 12 is going to bring us more chaos than we anticipate. We have the weird holiday slate that takes players away from their families and has way more teams than usual playing on short weeks. Then we also have lots of injury questions around players like Kenneth Walker, Geno Smith, David Carr, Cooper Kupp, and more. We also have major turnover at the quarterback position with Joe Burrow out for the season, and the Jets finally benching Zach Wilson.
There are just tons of variables that we don’t yet have a firm grasp of, and we have way less time than normal to let those situations play out. As a result, I might be leaning towards those safe floor defenses rather than the risky upside ones this week.
BOD Formula and Philosophy
Just a quick reminder of the BOD formula:
(Pressure Rate) + (Knockdowns) + (Pass Defense Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x2)
(% Drives ending in a Score) + (Explosive Plays Allowed Per Game)
It’s important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That’s why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Special shoutout to Arjun Menon, who calculates the explosive plays per game formula. .
Throughout the season I’ll keep track of how many top 10 defenses we correctly predicted. I know it’s not quite marking down if I nailed the number one defense each week or the number two, but it’s the most logical way I can think of to keep track of how often a defense I predicted would be a good play actually wound up being a good play. I know we always want the top defense, but I think, more often than not, if we get one of the ten performing defenses of the week, we’re not mad at the result.
SEASON RECORD FOR TOP 10 PREDICTIONS: 57-of-110 (51.8%)
So how do things stack up for Week 12?
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